3 hours

Year 9 Support

Autumn Term

Unit 5

Probability

NNS P276 - 283

Autumn Term

Spring Term

Summer Term

Support (from Y7 teaching programme) • Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1; find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts • Collect data from a simple experiment and record in a frequency table; estimate probabilities based on this data.
Core (from Y8 teaching programme) • Use the vocabulary of probability when interpreting the results of an experiment; appreciate that random processes are unpredictable • Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1 - p; find and record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and two successive events in a systematic way , using diagrams and tables. • Estimate probabilities from experimental data; understand that: - if an experiment is repeated there may be, and usually will be, different outcomes; - increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability. • Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in different contexts
Extension (from Y9 teaching programme) • Identify all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment; know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems. • Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence.
Starters	Main	ICT	Scaffolding	Key Questions	Notes
1000 Playthinks ~ 651 Probability machine ~ 685 Birthday paradox ~ 687 Dicing for a double six	Mymaths Introduction to probability Simple Probability Listing Outcomes Probability Fair Relative Frequency Active Worksheets Various experiments and worksheets MAP ~ Race game L4-6 (when extended – 3 dice, or multiply the dice scores) PoD ~ 4/74 Fridays WORCS ~ Fair's Fair L5/6 ~ Domino match L6	MAP ~ Set up a spreadsheet to automatically construct sample space diagrams for 2 dice etc HORN, Cornwall ~ How many times? 2	~ Number line ~ Spider diagram ~ Probability recording sheets ( 10 Ticks L7/8P1 p10) ~ Possibility space diagrams ~ Tree diagrams ~ Probability pots MAP ~ Generic assessment criteria	The probability it will rain tomorrow is ½ - True or False? Why? How can you decide how many outcomes there will be? If I flip a coin 1000 times will I get 500 heads? If you repeat an experiment, will you always / sometimes / never get the same result? Design an experiment that will give probabilities of 1/3, 1/2, 2/5 etc.	MAP – Level Ladders ~ Probability Extended tasks: MAP ~ Race game Problem-solving BOLT 101MP : 23 Designing games of chance; 27 Gambling Y8 able pupils extension ideas MAP ~ Race game and marking guidance L4-6 (when extended – 3 dice, x the throws)